With some numbers up and some down, the Saugeen Economic Development
Corporation is focusing on the positive indicators in the first quarter
results for Grey-Bruce.
Of the six indicators, three are in the positive territory.
“Three positive indicators are up dramatically, while the three negatives
are (up), but not as dramatically as the positives. With that in mind, we do
have reason to be optimistic,” said SEDC business manager Rose Austin.
The report shows that new vehicle sales were up by 26.4 per cent in the
fourth quarter of 2009 over the same period in 2008. In January and February
of this year, local sales increased another 16.9 per cent.
On the real estate market, the total sales was $95.6 million. That’s up from
$38.7 million from the same period in 2009. There were 451 houses sold in
Grey Bruce, up from 147, and the average selling price was $212,000.
Province-wide, the number of residential sales was 47,231 - an increase of
55 per cent over 2009’s first quarter, with an average selling price of
$341,900.
New builds were up in the area as well. Twenty-four were issued in the first
quarter, which is 13 units more than 2009, and is slightly higher than 2006,
2007, and 2008 reports.
Austin said the building permits and real estate indicators aren’t enough to
promise a full economic recovery.
She said a lot of those numbers come from people moving within the area,
instead of people moving to the area, such as aging baby boomers downsizing,
or young families up-sizing.
“It’s not just newcomers to the area,” Austin said.
On the other side of the scale, manufacturing jobs continued to dwindle in
the first quarter, with a loss of 325 positions from 21 companies. Just over
1,500 people are employed in the manufacturing sector at the end of March.
According to the report, manufacturing job numbers tend to be lower in the
first quarter, but the latest numbers are the lowest they have been since
2006, when the SEDC started recording.
“But that didn’t happen in the (second quarter) in 2009, so we’ll see what
happens in 2010,” she said.
But Austin said that with the changing economy, it may be time the SEDC
start using another sector as an indicator.
“We’ve always used manufacturing as an indicator, but I’m not sure whether
or not manufacturing employment is giving an accurate picture with the way
demographics are changing,” she said.
There are other large sectors that have maintained employment, she said,
that could be more indicative of economic turnaround.
As of March, there were 2,552 claimants for employment insurance, which was
up 17 per cent from the same quarter in 2009, but lower than the provincial
rate of 22.4 per cent.
Social assistance numbers are also up in Grey Bruce.
There were 1,830 cases reported – an increase of 297 cases over 2009’s first
quarter, and the highest on the SEDC’s records.
“Social assistance dollars are up, in some cases because EI has run out, and
people haven’t been able to find other jobs,” Austin said.
Some international economists have been predicting a “double dip” recession
amid fears of Euro-zone debt, and Austin said the negative indicators
locally do reflect that theory, but the positive indicators show drastic
growth in those sectors.
The SEDC includes figures from the municipalities of Arran-Elderslie,
Brockton, Chatsworth, Grey Highlands, Hanover, Minto, Southgate, South
Bruce, Wellington North, and West Grey.